Razorbacks in title speculation



LITTLE ROCK - At the racetrack, a thoroughbred at 25-1 is dismissed as a longshot. In the world of college football, a team with the same odds is just a cut below the favorites.

Out in Las Vegas, the sports books are taking bets on the teams deemed worthy and Arkansas is 25-1 to win the BCS championship game in New Orleans on Jan. 8.

Less than a dozen teams are a shorter price than the Razorbacks and simply being included in the elite is the first legitimate indication of the expectations for Houston Nutt's 10th team. To me, they are unrealistic and tied too closely to Darren McFadden and other talented skill players.

At the MGM Mirage Race and Sports Book, USC is the shortest price at 3-1 and Michigan is next at 7-2. "They should be right there," said Robert Warren, director-manager of the sports book. "They have so many returning players. After that, it's wide open."

Combatants in the Rose Bowl, the Trojans and the Wolverines are followed by defending champion Florida (6-1), LSU (10-1), Texas (12-1), Oklahoma (15-1), and Ohio State (20-1). Penn State, Nebraska, and Virginia Tech are at 22-1. Lumped with the Razorbacks are Florida State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame.

"That's a pretty good who's who of college football," Warren said.

I can't remember the last time Arkansas was given as good a chance as the Seminoles and the Fighting Irish to win the national title. A year ago, the Razorbacks were 80-1; the year before that they were 100-1.

Unsolicited, Warren said he has a great deal of respect for Nutt. "We know he's had some issues, but he's a good coach," he said. "It's one of those things, you don't know what the fans expect."

From there, he noted the 92,000 at Alabama's spring game and the expectations for Nick Saban's first team in Tuscaloosa.

"If they lose two games, it will be a disappointment," Warren said.

Instead of interpreting 75-1 on Alabama as realistic, those crazed Crimson Tide people will see it as a slight or an investment opportunity.

It is surprising that Arkansas is a shorter price than many of the traditional Southeastern Conference powers including Georgia (40-1), Auburn (60-1, and Tennessee (60-1). South Carolina fails to qualify as a power, but the Gamecocks are accounted for at 75-1 because coach Steve Spurrier is an attraction.

"With Darren McFadden, Arkansas is going to be highlighted throughout the season," Warren said. "You are always going to have the Darren McFadden watch. A lot of the other marquee players were lost."

Understandably, Warren has not taken much play on the Razorbacks. As usual, Notre Dame and USC are getting most of the early action. The former has a national following; the latter has athletes galore and Los Angeles is a 4 1-2-hour drive.

Notre Dame opened at 40-1 and Warren thought the price should have been higher. "They're like the Cubs, it doesn't matter what we hang them at, people are going to bet them," he said.

Warren said LSU's 41-14 rout of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl only underlined the Fighting Irish's lack of speed. "You saw that with Florida and Ohio State; speed kills," he said.

About this time last year, Florida was 10-1 to win the title and Warren says the Gators are an interesting proposition now because they won with Chris Leak at quarterback while many of the fans were clamoring for then-freshman Tim Tebow.

The current line is only a starting point and the sports books are pro-active, changing the numbers before the professional gamblers perceive a good thing and unload. For instance, if Arkansas is a 10-point favorite against Troy in the season opener and wins by 30, the 25-1 will drop some.

"Everything is perception," Warren said. "The current line is our perception of what we think you guys will think."

Personally, the line on Arkansas is way off. I can't get past the Razorbacks' trips to Tuscaloosa, Knoxville, and Baton Rouge, plus losses in the offensive line and on defense. Quarterback Casey Dick will be improved after a spring under coach David Lee, but SEC opponents will give him every opportunity to prove it.

The 25-1 line is nothing more than a compliment that the Razorbacks are perceived to be capable of winning the national title.

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